A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
